The 2024 Vuelta a España starts on Saturday 17th August in Lisbon. A challenging route awaits, with seven uphill finishes including the ferocious Picón Blanco and Lagos de Covadonga.
After a rambunctious year, Tadej Pogačar has decided to sit this one out. His fellow podium buddies from the Tour – Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel – have also passed on the chance to race the Spanish Grand Tour. Regardless of the top dogs’ absences, the reigning champion Sepp Kuss will attempt to pull off a title defence after his surprising win 12 months ago.
Three-time Vuelta winner Primož Roglič will return to racing at the Vuelta with the support of the Red Bull-Bora-Hangrohe squad. João Almeida will lead UAE Team Emirates alongside Britain’s Adam Yates. Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz will be looking to improve on their Tour results. Mikel Landa holds Basque hopes while Carlos Rodríguez will underpin Ineos Grenadiers’ approach at the final Grand Tour of the season.
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João Almeida, UAE Team Emirates
The 2024 Vuelta begins in Portugal for the first time in 27 years. Is this an omen for Portugal’s brightest GC star in decades? Perhaps.
After working in support of Pogačar all year, Almeida finally has the support of UAE Team Emirates. At the Tour last month, Almeida finished fourth while on domestique duties. Without those top 3 riders at the Vuelta, Almeida becomes the de facto race favourite.
A strong time-triallist, Almeida will relish the chance to gain time against the clock on Stages 1 and 21. The lack of long-form mountain stages should also favour Almeida’s loss-limiting style.
His UAE Team Emirates squad will strike fear in his opponents. Pavel Sivakov reprises his role from the Tour, while Jay Vine returns alongside early-season star Brandon McNulty and upcoming star Issac del Toro. UAE Team Emirates have nothing to lose, but everything to gain here.
Rating: 4/5
Primož Roglič, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe
It's hard to look past Roglič's record at this race. He has finished on the podium each time of completion. This, of course, includes his three overall victories between 2019 to 2021. Bluntly, there are few men in the business who can rock a punchy Vuelta finish quite like Primož Roglič.
Roglič, however, faced another Tour de France-ending crash last month. The Slovenian's injuries seemed pretty serious though. Once he abandoned the race, he took to social media to worryingly document his recovery from broken vertebrae.
To support in the mountains, Roglič will have Sasha Vlasov and Dani Martínez by his side. These two riders have finished in the top five of Grand Tours in recent years. After a disappointing Tour, expectations will be high for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's final Grand Tour of the year.
Rating: 4/5
Richard Carapaz, EF Education-EasyPost
Before signing with EF Education-First, Carapaz shared a phenomenal Grand Tour stat with Tadej Pogačar. Both riders were the only riders to finish on the podium of a Grand Tour each season since 2019. This stat factors in a very close call at the 2020 Vuelta which saw Carapaz lose out on the overall standings by just a handful of seconds to Primož Roglič.
This year will be the first year since 2022 that Carapaz lines up for the Spanish three-weeker. At the 2022 Vuelta, Carapaz rode a similar race to his 2024 Tour de France by raiding breakaways and the polka-dot jersey classification. This year, he could do similar. However, his GC racing has been a big focus for the American team's year-long strategy. After missing the mark in the GC standings at the Tour, much will be expected of Carapaz in the hunt for the maillot rojo.
Rating: 3/5
Adam Yates, UAE Team Emirates
Third at last year's Tour de France, Adam Yates is growing as a GC contender. As UAE Team Emirates' third card at the Tour, he finished in 6th place overall.
The Brit shines on longer climbs. Therefore, the stage to Lagos de Covadonga and the brutal finale to Cuiti Negru should suit Yates' strengths. He has also displayed signs of improvement in the time-trials and hill stages in recent years, so be prepared for Yates to be a sticky opponent for other teams.
I don't expect any internal friction between himself and Portuguese Almeida. The two have worked closely this year and tag teamed to victory at the Tour de Suisse in June. With that, don't expect any tactical silliness from UAE Team Emirates.
Rating: 3/5
Carlos Rodríguez, Ineos Grenadiers
Carlos Rodríguez made his big breakthrough at the 2022 Vuelta. The 23-year-old has since won a Tour stage, finished in the top five there and claimed a number of big UCI WorldTour race wins. This includes a win at the 2024 Dauphiné.
The Tour didn't quite go to plan for the young Spaniard. Overshadowed by UAE Team Emirates and the GC galacticos, Rodríguez was very much a second-tier contender for the podium. He proved unreliable on mountain stages and dropped earlier than expected – a real contrast to his strong 2023 Tour ride. He has also continued an unhelpful knack of crashing in big races.
Now back on home roads, Rodríguez can expect a better result in the GC standings. Regardless, a shot at the white jersey seems within his grasp.
Rating: 2/5
Enric Mas, Movistar Team
A steady Eddie of the Vuelta a España history books, Enric Mas has three Vuelta podium finishes to his name. Never the first to attack, the Catalan will be Movistar's top card in their home Grand Tour. A race packed with mountain stages should favour Mas' hopes, however, the two time-trials on offer will be an obstacle for the Spanish rider to achieve a fourth Vuelta podium in six years.
Mas missed the big GC moves at the Tour de France. Instead, he fought for breakaways in lieu of his dwindling hopes of reaching the top 15.
It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Mas bounces back and finishes on the podium. He is, after all, the Vuelta's stoic podium contender.
Rating: 2/5
Outsiders
The Vuelta is often the hardest Grand Tour to predict. With riders fighting for last-minute contracts and a final Grand Tour spotlight, anything can happen. Beyond the big riders already listed, look out for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's Sasha Vlasov and Dani Martínez. Ben O'Connor (Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale) will start the Vuelta after finishing in fourth place at the Giro earlier this year. Another Giro star, Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) will lead the hopes of his Middle Eastern squad.
Mattias Skjelmose skipped the Tour to ride the Vuelta. With this in mind, he might be cooking something up. Similarly, Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike) is back to winning ways after a lacklustre year spent as the reigning champion. The 2024 winner will be flanked by Cian Uijtdebroeks who will hope for a strong end to his first year with Visma-Lease a Bike.
The Cyclist prediction
UAE Team Emirates will complete a Grand Tour hat-trick and equal Visma's feat last year. For this, I am going to back João Almeida of Portugal.
Sometimes fairytales do happen. The race begins in his home nation and the lack of Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel will give Almeida the chance to flourish after a season spent on lieutenant duties. Yates will join him on the podium in a respectable third while Roglič acts as a caffeinated Red Bull filling to this podium sandwich in second.
