Like professional football, cycling now uses a promotion and relegation system to decide who receives licences for the top division of pro cycling. The relegation and promotion system is calculated over a three-year period. The current cycle has been running from the beginning of 2023 and will conclude at the end of 2025. Over the three seasons, every team’s UCI points are added together into a rolling leaderboard which will eventually dictate the future makeup of the UCI WorldTour.
All races in the UCI calendar receive a points classification, from the Tour de France to the Olympics, Paris-Nice and the San Marinese national championships. The points are then dished out based on stage results, general classification and secondary prizes such as the points jersey.
At the end of the three-year window, the top 18 teams in the UCI rankings will receive a licence for the UCI WorldTour, the top division of professional cycling. The teams placed 19th and below will compete as UCI ProTeams in the second division of pro cycling. At the end of the last relegation cycle, Lotto and Israel-Premier Tech were relegated after having accumulated fewer points than UCI ProTeams Alpecin-Deceuninck and Arkéa-Samsic.
We’re now over halfway through the current three-year cycle. Some teams have already emerged as contenders for relegation, while some have surfaced as candidates to receive a pass into the world’s biggest races.
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Who is in danger of relegation?
Astana Qazaqstan
Astana Qazaqstan have won Grand Tours and Monuments in the past decade. Recently though, the Kazakh team have fallen behind their rivals. After two seasons, Astana sit deep within the relegation zone.
In 2024, the team have moved down a place in the rankings and now seem swamped by new competitors from the UCI ProTeam division. In reality, Astana’s poor results in 2023 and 2024 place the squad in a sticky situation.
Currently in 21st place in the 2023-25 UCI rankings, Astana are the team most likely to lose their place in the UCI WorldTour. Second-division Lotto-Dstny, Israel-Premier Tech and Uno-X Mobility are placed above them in the league table.
Strengths
Astana Qazaqstan have some nifty talents and mature riders. The likes of Cees Bol, Davide Ballerini and Gleb Syritsa provide coverage in the sprints while Harold Tejada and Lorenzo Fortunato can climb into the top ten of mountain stages. The squad don’t shy away from targeting breakaways, a lucrative tactic for scoring points if they make it all the way.
The team also have a strong pedigree behind them and staff who know how to win big races. The problem is that this has not materialised recently, apart from the exploits of Mark Cavendish.
Bluntly put though, this team are about to receive a lot of cash from XDS, the Chinese carbon fibre manufacturer that is soon set to invest in the squad. XDS’ CEO pointed out that he wants to pump significant cash into the project with a multi-year focus. The signing of Alberto Bettiol, Wout Poels and Nicola Conci demonstrates an intent to improve on the team’s poor results. Bettiol in particular will help the squad fill their Classics void.
Weaknesses
Astana Qazaqstan have brought in a lot of resources to support Mark Cavendish. After bagging the history-making 35th Tour de France stage win, Cavendish bows out of the sport alongside current Astana rider Michael Mørkøv. Vinokourov’s team will also lose Alexey Lutsenko, the highest Astana points scorer over the past two seasons.
Astana also need to start participating in smaller stage races. Events like the Czech Tour, the Tour of Britain and Tour de l’Ain provide some big opportunities to score points. Throw in the smaller French stage races and early season one-day Classics, and Astana could have a pathway out of the danger zone. That said, the team have been in this situation for a while and nothing has changed. Maybe with a Chinese sponsor, the team may field squads to more Asian races that sit under the radar of most top teams.
Relegation risk level: 5/5
Arkéa-B&B Hotels
Currently sitting within the relegation zone, Arkéa B&B Hotels may have one of the shortest stints in the UCI WorldTour after their promotion at the start of last season.
Arkéa were among the poorest performers in the 2023 rankings, finishing in 19th place, only ahead of Astana Qazaqstan. The squad have climbed up the rankings slightly in 2024, however, the compiled standings over the three-year-long cycle would currently see the French team relegated.
Strengths
Arkéa have been efficient at taking points in smaller races. The French team field competitive line-ups for French one-day races and smaller stage races that yield a large amount of UCI points.
Signing Luca Mozzatto and Arnaud Démare proved fruitful. Mozzatto had a strong one-day campaign culminating in a podium at the Tour of Flanders. Démare has also snatched a whole host of points in French circuit races and Grand Tour sprints.
The squad is packed with riders capable of mid-table finishes in one-day races from Jenthe Biermans to Vincenzo Albanese and David Dekker. The wins have been few and far between outside of France, but the squad have now finally taken a Grand Tour stage win courtesy of Kevin Vauquelin at the Tour.
Weaknesses
The Breton team have a long-term focus on nurturing talent. The squad have a development team which has been fertile ground for transfers. This is good in the long run, but they need short-term answers to stay away from relegation.
Similarly, Arkéa are fairly absent in Grand Tours and bigger UCI WorldTour stage races. The team have only claimed victory once at a WorldTour race. This is a smaller return than some second-division rivals including Tudor Pro Cycling, TotalEnergies, Israel-Premier Tech and Uno-X Mobility.
In order to gain more points in the next year, Arkéa need to sign a big-name climber. The ship has sailed for Guillaume Martin and Lenny Martinez who have already signed contracts elsewhere for 2025. Now only a few riders remain on the market such as Rafał Majka and Esteban Chaves. The squad also lack a real puncheur to help out in the Ardennes Classics.
Relegation risk level: 4/5
Cofidis
Cofidis have been kicking about for a while. For a long time, the team were a tried-and-tested fixture of cycling's second division. In 2020, the French squad received a UCI WorldTour licence and duly moved up to the top flight.
Since their promotion – which was decided before the current points system – Cofidis have floated around the bottom quartile of the UCI rankings and currently sit in 17th place after the first season and half of the cycle. They survived the last cull, but the French team have since lost their mojo and face a difficult season ahead.
Strengths:
Cofidis have brought in some important point-scorers for next season. They have been very astute with their transfers, even if they have lost a key figure in Guillaume Martin.
Alex Aranburu seems like a fantastic signing for Cofidis' UCI WorldTour status. He should be able to scoop up some big results in French one-day races and smaller stage races. He'll come into the squad from next year and could prove to be a saviour. Likewise, Dylan Teuns should haul some crucial points in the Ardennes. He's a former winner of La Flèche Wallonne and has the ability to win another Grand Tour stage.
Cofidis also benefit from being French, as the Lille-based team are invited to a plethora of French races. As mentioned, this circuit offers a huge haul of points to be scored. With consistent results in French races, Cofidis could keep their WorldTour aspirations alive.
Weaknesses:
Like their northern French colleagues at Arkéa, Cofidis lack that star power. The squad has decent talent but their race results have been a mixed bag over the past two years. They have missed the mark at Grand Tours, relying on Guillaume Martin to secure a top 15 finish and sprint top tens from Bryan Coquard.
Relegation risk level: 3/5
Team DSM-Firmenich PostNL
Team DSM overperformed in the previous UCI rankings cycle, managing to climb up into the top five after the Covid-struck season in 2020. Since 2023, however, the team have struggled to keep up this form. Over the past two seasons, DSM have fallen into the bottom five of the UCI rankings each year.
The Dutch team might harbour a mixed approach involving a blend of young and old talents, but they currently sit in 17th place in the rolling standings. On their current trajectory, they would stay in the UCI WorldTour by the skin of their teeth.
Strengths:
Team DSM-Firmenich PostNL have a strong contingent of young riders. Oscar Onley, Max Poole, Casper van Uden and Pavel Bittner have succeeded at the top level in 2024. After a slow start to the cycle in 2023, the Dutch team have managed to gain momentum and return to winning ways. Decathlon-AG2R-La Mondiale have managed to keep their chances alive with a strong season this year, and DSM has the possibility to do that next year with their young guns.
To their benefit, DSM have a wide array of talents across different terrains. The squad boast time-triallists, Classics riders, climbers and importantly sprinters. A lot of their key riders are also locked in on long-term contracts. This gives the team some security in the seasons to come.
Unlike the other teams on this list, DSM have succeeded at Grand Tours, winning stages and finishing in the top 15 overall. This is crucial for the relegation battle, especially if they stay ahead of the French teams and Astana.
Weaknesses:
Romain Bardet will leave the squad next year after the Dauphiné. DSM have also suffered a number of big-name departures as their young stars seek alternative teams elsewhere. In the past, riders have managed to break out of the team before their contract expires.
Fabio Jakobsen has not been delivering since arriving at the team, only taking only a couple of wins at the Tour of Turkey. He was a big-budget signing and seems to have been a disappointing investment.
With the young nature of this team, the squad are relatively inexperienced in parts. They are often outmuscled by the super-teams and lack the vast race schedule like the aforementioned French teams. The results from the development team don't get funneled into the UCI rankings for the WorldTour squad, however. With this, they need to up their level in 2025 to stay alive.
Relegation risk level: 1/5
Who is likely to be promoted?
Lotto-Dstny
It's fair to say that Lotto-Dstny made a hash of the last relegation cycle. In 2022, a teenage Arnaud de Lie was responsible for a huge share of the team's UCI points. Elsewhere, the rest of the squad struggled to score wins at the UCI WorldTour level.
This time, Lotto-Dstny are very comfortable. After a season and a half, the Belgian team sit in ninth place in the UCI rankings. This places them in a very cushy position.
Lotto have won UCI WorldTour races this year, including an overall win at the UAE Tour. The squad have also tied down star De Lie and Lennart van Eetvelt on long-term contracts. Jarno Widar, the next big thing in Belgian cycling, is also contracted with the team until the end of the next relegation cycle. In short, it's looking good at Lotto-Dstny.
Promotion likelihood: 5/5
Israel-Premier Tech
Unlucky for some, Israel-Premier Tech are in 13th place in the UCI rankings. After a relegation at the beginning of 2023, they have a very strong chance of making it back into the UCI WorldTour.
The squad have a strong field of young talents as well as older stars. Stephen Williams injected hope into this squad at the start of 2024, and the whole team followed suit with a spring spent towards the top half of the standings.
Lutsenko will join the project next year which will also aid the team's aspirations of returning to UCI WorldTour level.
Promotion likelihood: 5/5
Uno-X Mobility
The optimists will be backing Uno-X Mobility to make it into the UCI WorldTour. The Norwegian team is relatively fresh-faced. They emerged after the pandemic as a competitive squad and have made it to the Tour startline in the two recent editions. Their mission statement was initially to make it up onto the WorldTour by 2025. This might be a bridge too far, but the Norwegian team is only a handful of points away from making it to the top division.
More Scandinavian talents have joined the project. Magnus Cort has added a heap of points to their tally in his debut season while Kasper Asgreen is rumoured to be joining the squad in 2025, adding extra firepower to their Classics squad. The team also benefit from a deep pool of young talent in their development squad.
If the French teams really waver in 2025, Uno-X could see the door open to promotion. They currently sit in 20th place within touching distance of the WorldTour stragglers.
